> ## Documentation index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://hypertake.net/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Price is the chance

> How to read a prediction market price as a probability: cents, bid and ask, the spread, and estimates

Source: https://hypertake.net/docs/outcomes/price-is-the-chance · Last updated: 2026-10-17

**A share's price in cents reads as the market's chance, in percent.** If Yes trades at 40¢, traders as a whole are pricing about a 40% chance that the answer is Yes, because a share that pays $1 when Yes wins is worth about 40¢ if Yes happens 40% of the time.

## Why the price equals the chance

A winning share pays $1 and a losing share $0. If you bought many shares at 40¢ in markets where Yes really happened 40% of the time, you'd get back $1 on 40% of them: 40¢ a share on average, exactly what you paid. So a fair price in cents is the chance in percent. When you think the real chance is higher than the price, buying is a bet that the market is wrong.

**Example: Priya thinks the market is too low**
- Yes costs 30¢, so the market says about 30%. Priya thinks the real chance is closer to 50%.
- If she's right, a Yes share is worth about 50¢ on average and she's paying 30¢: an edge of about 20¢ a share.
- If she's wrong and it's really 30% or less, she's paying a fair price or overpaying. The price doesn't promise anything either way.

Flow: Price 30¢ = market says 30% → Priya says 50% → buys Yes, expecting about 50¢ of value per 30¢ share

## Bid, ask and the spread

A market has two prices at any moment. The **ask** is the cheapest price a seller will accept now: what buying costs. The **bid** is the highest price a buyer will pay now: what selling brings. The gap between them is the **spread**, and the chance sits between the two.

Because Hyperliquid merges the Yes and No books, each side's prices mirror the other's: Yes's ask is $1 minus No's bid, and Yes's bid is $1 minus No's ask. That's why buying Yes and buying No usually add up to a little more than $1: the extra is the spread.

|  | Bid (sell now) | Ask (buy now) | Middle |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 40¢ | 42¢ | 41¢ |
| No | 58¢ (= 100 − 42) | 60¢ (= 100 − 40) | 59¢ |

_One order book seen from both sides. Buying Yes costs 42¢, buying No costs 60¢, and the chance of Yes reads as about 41%._

## Which price Hypertake shows where

| Where | What the number is | When it's left out |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Market cards** (Outcomes, Closing soon) | The middle of each side's bid and ask, or the one price quoted if only one side has orders | No number when the spread is over 30¢ or the book is empty |
| **Chance** (a chart's headline, a question's rows) | The middle of the Yes book | Only shown from a book whose spread is 10¢ or less |
| **Buy buttons** on a market page | The side's ask: what buying actually costs | "—" when there are no real sellers (the two asks add up to more than $1.50) |
| **Sell ticket, positions** | The bids: what selling actually brings | Shares nobody is bidding for count as $0 |

> **Tip: Buy at the ask, sell at the bid**
> The chance on a card is a middle price; nobody necessarily trades there. What you pay is on the **Buy** button, and what you'd get is on the **Sell** ticket. On a wide book these can be several cents apart.

## Estimates, when the book says nothing

A young or quiet price market can have no usable orders. Rather than show nothing, Hypertake estimates the chance from the underlying's price now, its volatility over the last day and the time left (a standard log-normal model). Estimates are drawn **faded** so you can tell them apart, and a real price from a tight book always replaces them.

> **Warning: An estimate isn't an offer**
> You can't buy at an estimated price. A buy fills only against sellers on the book; if none are there, the ticket says **No one is selling Yes right now**, and nothing is sent.

## Prices near 0¢ and 100¢

- Prices are rounded to a tenth of a cent. Under 10¢ one decimal shows (4.5¢); at 99.95¢ and above the price shows as 100¢.
- The phone writes the extremes as "<0.1¢" and ">99.9¢".
- Offers at 99.95¢ or more are left out of buying: a share bought at 100¢ can at best pay back its cost.
- A price near 100¢ isn't a sure thing. A market at 97¢ still loses 3% of the time, and late swings happen.

### Why do Yes and No add up to more than 100¢?

Because each button shows what buying costs, the ask, and each side's ask is $1 minus the other side's bid. The extra over 100¢ is the spread. The middle prices add up to 100¢.

### Why does the card say 41¢ but buying costs 42¢?

The card shows the middle of the bid and ask; buying pays the ask. If you spend more than the first offer holds, you also climb to higher offers, and the ticket shows your average price before you buy.

### Does the price move when I buy?

It can. A large order takes the cheapest offers first and then pricier ones. The phone ticket warns "Size moves the price to X¢" when your order would reach more than 1¢ above the best offer.

- [Reading a market](https://hypertake.net/docs/outcomes/reading-a-market.md): Every part of a market's page, explained.
- [Market types](https://hypertake.net/docs/outcomes/market-types.md): Above, touch, ladders and questions.